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It is only fitting that the first player on the list should have the same surname as a prominent pol:
Reggie Bush, RB New Orleans Saints. This Bush has a much higher approval rating in N’awlins, and by the second half of the season could be said to be doing a “heckuva job”. However, with highly paid Deuce McAlister still on the Saints’ roster and healthier with more distance between him and ACL surgery, Bush will split time in the backfield once again.

I still look for Bush to get a lot of touches and yards, but how many Touchdowns will he score, especially
with limited redzone opportunities? Bush will catch a lot of passes and will be well worth a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but I would question anything earlier than that. He’s ranked as a late first rounder in many rankings.

Marques Colston WR New Orleans Saints
Another guy who dropped way off in the 2nd half, like Tony Romo. I realize Colston was injured, but his production went from 7 TD’s in the first 8 games to 2 in the last 9, counting the playoffs. With no Joe Horn or Donte Stallworth on the other side, but either rookie Robert Meachum or a no-name, Colston will draw the double coverage that Horn or Stallworth used to get. Drew Brees is coming off a career year and may have a hard time duplicating last years’ production. More than one player has fallen prey to the “sophomore jinx”.

Vernon Davis TE, San Francisco 49ers
A lot of rankings have Davis ranked right behind Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, and Todd Heap. Pretty heady stuff for a guy who has 265 yards and 3 TD’s in his career. Most of that came in the month of December, after coming back from an injury. The guy is a stud, and in time will be a big star, but for now, putting him at #3 or 4 at his position is based on potential. As someone once said “potential” is French for “you ain’t done anything yet”.

Robbie Gould K, Chicago Bears
Gould’s situation reminds me of Neil Rackers last year, and we know how that turned out. Journeyman has big year out of nowhere, then? Usually the guy gets a big pay raise, does some ads, etc, and drops way off. With I-N-T-Rex Grossman at QB, lots of Touchdown opportunities will turn into FG attempts, maybe, but they might also turn into 6 points, for the defense.

Laurence Maroney RB, New England Patriots
Another guy who is a beast, and I believe will be a star. I just believe that it might take Maroney another year or two to adjust to being the feature guy. All the way back to Minnesota, he has shared the load, with Marion Barber III and others there, then Corey Dillon last year. His ranking is as high as #7 in some of the ones I’ve looked at, too high for a guy who’s been part time, at least since high school.

Willis McGahee RB, Baltimore Ravens
McGahee has never averaged over 4.0 a carry in his career, has scored only 11 Touchdowns the last 2 years, and is going to a team with an offensive line in transition. Ever since that night in Tempe, AZ when as a Miami Hurricane, he tore both ACL’s, he just doesn’t look like the same player. I don’t think he has ever regained the speed that had him ahead of Clinton Portis and others on the ‘Canes’ depth chart. But he does have Drew Rosenhaus for his agent, so McGahee continues to draw the big bucks.

Steve Smith WR, Carolina Panthers
The Mighty Mite Smith dropped way off last year from his career year of 2005. The surprising thing is that his player rankings have not followed suit. I still think he is a terrific football player, but that does not always translate into a great fantasy player. Smith was all that and more in ’05, but beginning with the NFC Championship game in Seattle in Jan. 2006, Carolina opponents have found ways to neutralize Smith. Even with a dependable veteran in Keyshawn Johnson on the other side last year, Smith’s production in the 2nd half of the season went from 758 yards in the first half to 296 in the latter half of the season. With Jake Delhomme under fire and no other proven player at wideout, that does not merit a Top 15 ranking in my book.

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego
The English language has run out of enough adjectives to describe what this man can do with a football.  We all know about his amazing season last year when at the very least he carried every fantasy team he was on into the playoffs on his shoulders.  We would be hard pressed to expect him to repeat the success of last season, but there is no reason to believe that his numbers will decline greatly.  While last season saw three players ranked at 1a, 1b and 1c going into the draft, this season the Charger stands alone.

2. Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis
Reggie Bush received a lot of attention last year for his pass catching ability however he did not top the receiving leader board among RBs.  That honor went to Steven Jackson.  His receptions from 2005 to 2006 jumped from 43 to 90 with yards also taking a leap from 320 to 806.  Not only did he catch the ball, but only Larry Johnson and LT carried it more than he did.  There is no doubt Jackson will get the number of touches in 2007 to continue to be a top shelf RB.

3. Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City
As a member of the big three going into last years drafts, Johnson’s solid season was overshadowed greatly by LT.  His numbers from 2005 to 2006 did drop slightly however.  While his rushing yards increased from 1750 to 1789, he needed 80 more carries to achieve that gain, dropping his YPC from 5.2 to 4.3.     Question marks continue to follow him around as Kansas City’s current quarterback situation is a little murky.  He also faces the departure of 12-time Pro Bowl lineman in Will Shields.  While his schedule is favorable, the loss of Shields definitely hurts.

4. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco
Frank Gore pushed himself into the first round this year with an incredible season in San Francisco setting the franchise record for rushing yards.  What I like about Gore is that he finished third in the NFL in rushing yards on just 312 carries.  That led to the highest YPC for running backs who rushed for more than 1000 yards.  The 49ers look to finally be moving out of the rebuilding stage and become contenders.  This is an important thing to consider as he averaged 81 yards a game in the 49ers nine losses and 139 yards a game in their seven wins.

5. Rudi Johnson, RB, Cincinnati
He is the model of consistency with 12 TDs in each of the last four years. That consistency might be no more as his YPC dropped by half a yard last year.  He may have lost little bit of explosiveness as well over the last four years as his longest runs of the season over that time have been 54 yards, 52, 33 and just 22 in the 2006 campaign.  The Bengals took a step backwards last year, even with Palmer playing in all 16 games.  They will need to reclaim the success they had in 2005 in order to prevent Johnson’s numbers from slipping.  While Rudi may lack the upside of other players going in the first round, he does provide solid production without many question marks.

6. Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle
The other member of last season’s draft day triumvirate ran into a problem with the Madden Curse last year.  It will be interesting to see if he can return to his pre-cover boy form.  The biggest concern going into 2007 is his YPC dropped from 4.8 and 5.1 in 2004 and 2005 to a measly 3.6 in 2006.  Without a full season it was tough to see if the decline was due to the injury or due to the loss of Steve Hutchinson.   Seattle has not yet brought in a free agent lineman to shore up the line.  The team’s YPC dropped from 2nd in the league in 2005 to 17th in 2006 and from 3rd to 14th in overall rushing.

7. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh
In Willie Parker’s first season without the presence of Jerome Bettis he saw his touchdown total increase from 5 to 16.  His legs are still relatively fresh as he has only accumulated two full seasons of wear as the feature back.  A new head coach and offensive coordinator should not be cause for concern.  Without any serious threat to vulture his goal line opportunities, Parker’s production should remain fairly steady.

8. Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia
The 2006 season saw a couple of noted injury-prone players Westbrook and Fred Taylor each playing in 15 games.  Westbrook’s production had been pretty steady prior to last season, with a pair of successful seasons that were hampered by injuries.  We all know that he has amazing talent out of the backfield as a receiver considering Coach Reid’s emphasis on the pass.  What we had yet to see from Westbrook was an (almost) full season of running the ball consistently.  In 2006, he ran for career highs of 1217 yards on 240 attempts for a YPC of 5.1.  With the Eagles offense starting to become more balanced with playcalling duties changing from Reid to Mornhinweg, Westbrook’s numbers should continue to grow.

9. Jospeh Addai, RB, Indianapolis
The Colts have managed to find another fantasy dynamo in Addai - first Faulk, then Edge, and now Addai.  Those are some large shoes to fill, and Addai has shown the ability to follow in their footsteps.  Without Rhodes around to snipe carries, Addai should see a dramatic increase in his workload.  With Peyton still under center, Addai will have plenty of room to run free. The Colts do play a tough schedule in 2007, the 7th toughest for RBs.  Though even with the tough schedule, Addai could easily finish among the top RBs in the league.

10. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville
The first of two second-year Pac-10 RBs on this list, Jones-Drew is starting to make his own headlines.  He led RBs in YPC last year with 5.7, finishing just under 1,000 yards.  He has an incredible nose for the end zone.  After just six touches in his first two games, he managed to find the end zone in twelve of the final fourteen games.  Fragile Fred Taylor is still around, but even if Taylor manages to stay healthy, Jones-Drew has tremendous value.  His numbers should improve along with an expected increase in carries, especially with the Jaguars facing the easiest schedule in the league for RBs.

11. Travis Henry, RB, Denver
After two years spent as a fantasy football afterthought, Henry has reclaimed the mojo he lost when the Bills drafted Willis McGahee.  He reached a career high in YPC with 4.5 last season operating as the Titans primary runner.  The big news is his move to the Mile High City, where it is a fantasy given that rushing numbers will be accumulated.  Some might be scared by the thought of Mike Shanahan switching running backs around, but Henry has a whole lot of upside in Denver’s zone-blocking scheme.

12. Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans
In his freshman campaign, Reggie Bush had some mixed results.  His receiving numbers were stellar, but his running totals were not.  The good news for the coming season is he still has plenty of room to grow into his potential as a runner.  Despite not scoring on offense until week 10, he managed to finish with 8 TDs.  The Saints offense enjoyed an incredible season offensively.   As a team they might not reclaim as much success, but look for Bush’s receiving totals to hover around the same as they were in his first season and for his YPC to increase from the 3.6 it was in 2006.

Near Misses:
Peyton Manning - A stud, but at the wrong position.
Willis McGahee - A new team with a track record for RB production.
Ronnie Brown - Still stuck with Miami’s lackluster offense.
Laurence Maroney – Yet to prove he can handle full workload and already battling injuries.

When building your draft board for Kickers it is important to consider three things. First, if the Kicker has the strength to make FGs, especially in leagues where bonus points are given for FGs of 40 or more yards. Second is whether or not the Kicker is accurate. This becomes especially important in leagues where negative points are awarded for missed kicks. Finally the most important aspect, as mentioned above, is opportunity.

Leg Strength

In 2006, the Falcons called Morten Andersen out of retirement after struggling to find a suitable Kicker. The knock on Andersen was that despite being one of the most accurate Kickers of all time, at age 46 he certainly could not have much strength left in his left leg. However Andersen was 7-9 on kicks greater than 40 yards, with one miss being from over 50. Despite not playing in 2 games in 2006, Andersen still managed to outscore Brown, and a couple of others. The best way to judge a kicker’s strength is by taking a look at his season long kicks of the past few seasons. If each season’s long is within a couple of yards of the others then it is safe to assume that the Kicker will be able to make a kick of a similar distance.

Accuracy

Another factor to examine when considering a Kicker is his ability to place the kick between the uprights. A kicker can have the strongest leg in the world, but without accuracy, he is useless. In high school, one of my friends attempted a 63 yard FG in a playoff game. He kicked it over 70 yards, but the ball landed on the track to the left of the field, giving the opposing team the ball on their side of mid field. Similarly in 2006 Rob Bironas of the Titans proved to have a strong leg by impressively making a 60 yard FG, but for the season only made half (5-10) of his attempts over 40 yards. Again the best way to make judgment on a Kicker’s ability is to look at his makes vs. attempts stats at different distances after looking at his strength. In leagues that punish kickers for misses this becomes even more important.

Opportunity

Far and away the most important aspect of Kicker evaluation is the opportunity to kick. No one can make an 80 yard FG, so if the kicker is on a team with a stagnant offense he is going to have very little opportunity. It is no coincidence that the highest producing Kickers in 2006 came from the most productive offensive teams. Perhaps the best example of strength, accuracy and opportunity is the Bears’ Robbie Gould. In 2006, Gould had the opportunity to attempt 36 FGs and 47 extra points. Gould made 32 of the 36 FGs, going 12-14 on kicks greater than 40 yards. Factor in his 47 extra points and it is easy to see how and why Gould led all Kickers in scoring. Even though opportunity should be the first aspect examined, I saved it for last to emphasize the importance of it. Even the worst of NFL Kickers would have been able to produce had they played for the Bears last season. Maybe not the way Gould did with his 143 points (plus a ton of bonus points for 12 FGs over 40 yards), but they would probably at least produce in the 120s with a 75% FG accuracy. Much the same, even Gould would have struggled to break 100 if given the opportunities of Brown or Matt Bryant in Tampa Bay.

If at all possible look to get one of the first Kickers to come off of the draft board, but do not draft too early. Once the top 3 Kickers are gone there is very little difference between number 4 and number 14. Many advise taking your Kicker in the last round of the draft, I always like to take my kicker after I have gotten my starters at the other offensive positions plus a little RB depth… and last year I ended up with Gould.

For instance, if your league has a scoring system that only awards 4 points for a passing touchdown, or 1 point for every 40-50 yards passing, obviously Peyton Manning or any QB is greatly devalued. In such a system, Manning would only post 22 points for 300 yards through the air and 4 scores, whereas a running back could equal that output with 100 yards and 2 TD’s.

Thus, the 1st Commandment of fantasy football is: read the scoring rules carefully before the draft and choose your players accordingly.

The 2nd Commandment: have a plan, but also know that most of the players high on your list are going to be coveted by other owners as well. Find out as early as possible what position you’re drafting from. While you can’t predict what opponents will do - I’ve seen some pretty strange picks in the 1st round - expect the owners ahead of you to take your highest ranked player available. If they do, you’re covered, if not you get a nice little bonus.

Example: last season, I was assigned the 3rd pick of the draft, therefore I knew that one of the trio of Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, or LaDainian Tomlinson would be there. I knew that I would have a stud RB to build my team around, so I focused on getting the best QB or WR available in the
2nd round  with the 18th  overall pick. Fortunately, Alexander was off the board when my turn came and LJ went second, so I had the record holder for most TD’s in a season dropped in my lap. Hey, I admit it, it takes a little luck to win the title.

I didn’t think there was any way Peyton Manning would be there at 18, but after everyone was scrambling for RB’s and a few for the top wideouts, he was still there. Since I knew the rules and am not bound by any formula of “don’t take a Quarterback before the 3rd or 4th round”,  Mr. Manning was snapped up ASAP. Peyton will outscore any #2 RB on the market nearly every week. Remember fantasy football is not about balance from every position, it’s about total points.

With those two locked into my team, the rest was pretty easy. As a bonus,  I wound up picking up Maurice Jones-Drew and his 16 touchdowns from the waiver wire in Week 2 for my #3 RB. Robbie Gould was picked up early also and I rode these guys all the way to the championship, dominating the league in the process. Todd Heap was my TE, providing steady production, but  I don’t even remember who my WR’s were. Does that tell you anything?. Oh yeah, some guy who goes by his initials was there in the 4th round.

Of course, if you’re choosing in the last part of the 1st round, the plan must change completely. One year, I drafted 10th in a 10 team league, but having the 10th and 11th picks is not a bad place to be. I went with the top rated RB on the my board and Randy Moss in his first year in silver and black. That’s the main thing that broke me from taking a WR that early, but I still made the championship game, losing a close one.

Whatever  position you’re drafting from, know that unlike the NFL draft, if you do pick late in the 1st round, you will pick early in the 2nd, so keep in mind that it all that evens out and invariably there will be good players undrafted to fill in any holes.

One more thing. Check the bye weeks and don’t draft too many players with the same week off. If you do you’re likely to get drilled when that week comes around and that one loss could keep you out of the playoffs in a competitive league. (What other kind of league would you want to be in? I don’t enjoy competing against a bunch of slappys with Jake Plummer or Aaron Brooks as their starting QB. A little challenge never hurt anyone.)

Now, we will examine the profile of the average fantasy football league. I have been in many leagues, public and private, and have seen pretty much the same type of owners in all:

Clueless Charlie. This is the kind of guy like the doofus in the NFL fantasy ad (which was funny the first 200 times or so, but has long since worn out). You know, the guy who pronounces the name of one of the few Bengals who doesn’t have a bail bondsman on speed dial, TJ “Hoash-muh-zoad” among other gaffes. This clown may mumble “championship”, but if he starts out 1-2 or worse, look for his face on the back of a milk carton.

Thomas Trashtalker. This one runs down everyone else’s draft picks, but half the time doesn’t even know who they are, and assumes that because he isn‘t familiar with them, they‘re no good. A few years ago, my pick of Jerry Porter in the 6th round (when he was coming off of a 1000/10 season) set one of these guys off. Turned out he thought it was Joey Porter. These guys usually have alligator mouths and hummingbird er, bodies, even after your team beats them to a pulp.

Studmuffin Steve. This species usually lettered at linebacker for Buford T. Justice High and knocked out Billy Simms or some other high school All-American back in the day, or so the story goes. Steve thinks his playing days give him a big advantage in FFB and has some macho team name like the Butt-Kickers or the Slobberknockers or Kickinyer@$$. I love beating these guys. I tell ya’ it’s a license to steal.

Trader Vic. The dust has barely settled on the draft when Ol’ Vic is already making trade offers, usually on somebody he passed over . The typical proposal is something like offering JP Losman, Wali Lundy, and  David Akers for Peyton Manning. Hey, it’s 3 for 1, dude!

Running Man. This owner drafts nothing but RB’s until about the 7th round, then springs for Jon Kitna to be his starting QB. Even if you have Mike Williams and Shockmain Davis (a real player BTW) as your starting WR’s “you can never have too many running backs”! Some of these guys do wind up making some good trades, though.

Dr. Phil-Good . A combination of the Dr Feelgood of song and Phil McGraw, this good doctor always gets his top choice at every position…until he starts 1-5 and then becomes a victim of whatever position he drafted from. This is another owner who might as well move his team to the Phillipines and call ‘em the Manilla Folders.

Captain Quick-Hook. If a player has a bad game or two, the Cap’n makes ‘em walk the plank, waiving them or trading the guy for whatever he can get. This was me until a few years ago. It seems I had LJ handcuffed to Priest Holmes. LJ was getting 5 carries a game or so as a backup. I traded him for next to nothing, Holmes got hurt, LJ went nuts and a Clueless Charlie rode him to the title. Lesson learned.

Formula Fred. This owner will make your eyes glaze over with talk of paradigms and pythagorean theorems of the fantasy draft. Fred has a formula for every round and what position to draft. Take RB’s in the 1st and 2nd, WR in the 3rd, never take a QB before round 4, yada, yada, yada. Even after you win the title, Fred will give a lecture on how you were lucky you drafted in your position, even if you beat him like a rug on the bye week of your first pick.

Cliff Craven. Like Cliff Claven, the know-it-all mailman of Cheers, this owner has a theory for everything, but lacks the confidence to stick to his guns. Cliffy will tweak his lineup 11 times a day from Monday to Sunday and seek the advice of everyone from his own mailman to one of the talking heads on ESPN.

Finally, most leagues have a Scheming Sam. Sam doesn’t have the horses to win the league so he tries to get a buddy who is out of the running to trade LT to him for say, Chris Brown. Sam will worry about the commissioner later. If that fails, he will try to trash talk his opponent‘s QB in a vain attempt to get his foe to take P. Manning out of the lineup. Or harass his opponent with ridiculous trade proposals all week.

Not everyone in every league fits into these categories, but I have encountered all of them at one time or another. How about you?

While in real life kickers are often underrated, in fantasy they are often overrated. One of the typical mistakes made by many fantasy football owners is drafting a kicker too early, wanting to complete their starting roster with an available kicker they think will carry more value than whatever skill-position players are left.

This can be a costly mistake. Using picks that could be spent selecting sleepers at skill positions like running back or wide receiver could leave you missing a player that could make a huge difference on your team. Don’t be guy that takes a kicker in the sixth round.

In reality, the point deferential from week to week between a top rated kicker and a middle of the road kicker is minimal. Only 30 points separated the top-ranked kicker (Robbie Gould) and the 10th-ranked (Joe Nedney). That is just a shade less than two points per game over a 16-week season.

You shouldn’t look to take your kicker until the last or second to last round in your draft. In some cases you can even find one serviceable enough on the waiver wire.

Last season I drafted Adam Vinatieri, who ended up missing three games with a groin injury, so I was forced to go to the waiver wire for a replacement. There is where I found Chicago’s kicker Gould who ended up leading the league in points (143), making 89 percent of his kicks.

Gould won’t be on the waiver wire this season after the draft but rest assured there will be one or two guys un-drafted that will end up being more than serviceable. Names like Martin Gramatica from Dallas, David Rayner from Green Bay or Stephen Gostkowski of the Patriots. Rayner had over 100 points last season, and Gostkowski converted 20 of 26 field goal attempts (76.9 percent) and hit 43 of 44 extra points.

The main thing to remember when trying to find a successful fantasy kicker is to make sure he plays on a team that wins games. Of the 23 kickers that scored 100 or more points last season, 17 of them were on teams with a .500 or better record.

There will be exceptions, like the Cardinals’ Neil Rackers who once again had a 100 point campaign in Arizona, but the more successful kickers in the league win games.

Before you go and grab Robbie Gould also keep in mind that more often then not the top scoring kickers from the previous season drop significantly. Over the past four seasons the top kicker in fantasy football dropped 36 percent of their total the next season, and only 14 of the 42 kickers who ranked in the top ten in any of those four seasons followed it up the following season.

In other words, it is a complete crap shoot. So you are better off rolling the dice on a player that might grab you double-digit touchdowns then three more field goals. After all, who would rather have had last season, Marques Colston or Matt Stover?

Top 10 Kickers
1.   Adam Vinatieri
2.   Nate Kaeding
3.   Shayne Graham
4.   Robbie Gould
5.   Jeff Wilkins
6.   Neil Rackers
7.   Jason Elam
8.   David Akers
9.   Josh Scobee
10.   Josh Brown

Assuming your league doesn’t count return yardage, let’s look at the totals:

Deuce McAllister: 1,259 total yards and 11 total touchdowns, 1 fumble lost
Reggie Bush: 1,306 total yards and 9 total touchdowns, 2 fumbles lost

If you were in a league that gave out points for pass receptions, your points for these two players would have been almost identical. If not, McAllister would have netted you slightly more.

If the whole Running Back By Committee (RBBC) thing scares you, you may want to avoid these two in the first round and opt for someone that will start and be “the man.” Guys like LT, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook and now Laurence Maroney fit that bill. You may ALSO choose QB Peyton Manning, or a receiver like Terrell Owens or Steve Smith before reaching for McAllister or Bush.

However, if you are intrigued by the upside of either Saint, I would suggest taking a closer look at Bush. That’s because, despite being a surefire draft pick last season, he still had to learn the nuances of being an offensive player in the NFL. He got better and better last season, and most of you probably still remember the long touchdown reception in the NFC Championship game where he looked back at Brian Urlacher and did a forward flip into the end zone. Thing is, players like Reggie Bush don’t come along too often. And along with Bush’s upside, McAllister is one year older and has battled injuries for most of his career.

In fact, if you look at the possible RBBC teams, the Saints are right there along with Dallas, Houston, NY Jets, Atlanta, and Jacksonville. But of those teams and their respective running backs, I would take Reggie Bush before them all, and I would suggest taking him in the late first round in a 12-team league. Otherwise someone else will grab him first. As far as McAllister, he should be a late second round pick or early third rounder if he’s going to start or split time with Bush. In fact, you may grab a stud QB or WR before McAllister.

Cedric Benson is now the starter in Chicago. He goes from 10 carries a game to somewhere around 25 (there’s no way he gets all 296 of Jones’ carries last year AND his own 157). It’s dangerous to assume he can keep his 4.1 YPC average and stay healthy all season at that clip, but giving him the benefit of the doubt, that would be 1,640 yards, and 12-15 TDs. Though Benson did better in the latter part of last season, he does struggle at times, and there are some questions about whether he can handle the stress of being the feature back. More realistic Benson owners could expect somewhere around 1,350 yards and 10-12 TDs, barring any breakdowns. Not horrible numbers, and better than Jones’ rushing numbers last year. If Grossman can figure out the short game, Benson might pull in 30-40 catches for another 200 yards or so. Of course, all of this assumes that Benson can come back from his Super Bowl knee injury.

Thomas Jones is immediately becomes the starter for the Jets. I don’t see his rushing numbers changing significantly from last year. Jones is a back that does his best work with 18-20 carries per game. The Jets had a ‘carry by committee’ backfield last year, and though they’re looking for Jones to change that (they released Kevan Barlow and Derrick Blaylock), Leon Washington showed enough spark as a rookie to believe he can be relied upon to keep Jones rested. At 18-20 carries, Jones will rack up somewhere in the neighborhood of 300 carries on the year (296 last year). Speaking conservatively, Jones will attain 1200 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. Respectable, but not earth-shattering – until we remember that Jones has soft hands, and was often an outlet option for Grossman in Chicago (it wasn’t his fault Rex couldn’t get him the ball). The Jets offense, with Chad Pennington at the helm, can take advantage of Jones out of the backfield. Here’s where Jones’ value gets a nice boost. If the Jets’ offensive line can prove themselves reasonably competent, Jones catches 50 balls for another 300 yards and 2-3 TDs.

Should Mangini and company decide to take advantage of Jones’ “younger than his years” body (he’s got fewer than 1,400 carries in his career and he’s a gym rat), and up his carries to Curtis Martin numbers, Jones could very well match Martin’s best season (2004). In that case, 1600+ yards and 10-12 TDs, with 300+ yards and 3TDs receiving wouldn’t be impossible numbers.

Given the above, the Jets passing game should improve. Defenses will have to occasionally move 8 into the box to respect Jones, which should open things up for Pennington and the receivers. Chicago’s passing game will likely suffer a bit. With Jones and Benson in the game, there was rarely a time that defenses didn’t have to worry about the run. In fact, the rule for beating the Bears was “make Grossman beat you.” Now, however, with no serious threat behind Benson on the depth chart, opposing defenses will have the option of dropping the extra man into coverage, which shouldn’t make things any easier on the much-maligned Chicago quarterback.

So, where does Joseph Addai fall?

Addai delivered a brilliant 2006 campaign. He led all rookies in rushing yards (1,081), obtained at a clip of 4.8 yards per carry (YPC). He scored 8 total TDs, including 7 rushing TDs. He averaged 8.1 yards per reception (YPR), and received those passes from Peyton Manning. Oh, and did I mention that Addai did not start a game until the Wildcard Playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs in January? Not bad for a backup.

Those numbers didn’t appear from thin air - they built upon his collegiate career at LSU. His 2,549 total rushing yards ranked him fifth all-time at LSU. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored 18 TDs, 9 of which came in his senior season. He always possessed the proper credentials for greatness.

Some might argue Addai landed in the ideal situation. The 4th overall RB drafted in the 2006 NFL Draft, he couldn’t have asked for a better situation than the perennial contender Indianapolis Colts. Addai won his championship at LSU in 2003, so he proved he can contribute to a winner. Peyton Manning certainly can keep any defense honest to for a RB to run, as proven multiple times last season against Baltimore and in the Super Bowl against Chicago. Addai also shared carries with Dominic Rhodes, so he wasn’t expected to completely carry the rushing game as a rookie for Indy. Who couldn’t succeed under those circumstances?

Now the question for 2007 is not what Addai will deliver, but his legitimacy as one of the NFL’s top RBs. With Rhodes off to Oakland, Addai will finally nail down the feature back position in Indy. Sure, Tony Dungy said he intends to continue the 2-back system. After Addai’s 2006, though, all signs point to Dungy giving Addai more carries and more involvement – giving him the ball and letting him run with it. And he will.

Indianapolis will continue to roll with the big boys in 2007, with Manning throwing to any receiver he damn well feels like. And when he’s not throwing to Harrison or Wayne, he’ll hit Addai. He’ll hit Addai for 400 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. And when Manning keeps the ball on the ground, Addai will accrue his 1,500 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs.

In 2007, Addai will step up and join the elite RBs in the NFL and the fantasy football world. He’ll go in the latter half of the first round, after LT, Stephen Jackson, Gore, LJ, Shaun Alexander, and Willie Parker. A 2-back system will hurt Addai’s value, but only so much that he won’t be the second overall pick in most drafts as a result.

In 2006, the Indianapolis Colts’ Super Bowl run thrust greatness upon Joseph Addai. In 2007, he will achieve it on his own accord. Draft accordingly.

To give you some idea how secure Jamal Lewis’ job is in Cleveland, the only other halfbacks on the roster are Jerome Harrison and Jason Wright. That’s almost as secure as a Supreme Court gig, alas with a much shorter career.

With an inexperienced Quarterback, no matter who it is, and especially when Brady Quinn takes the helm, this ship will be headed for choppy waters, if not an iceberg. As if that’s not enough, Joe Thomas is almost certain to be the Left Tackle, meaning two critical positions will be manned by rookies.

Wherefore art thou Romeo? On the hot seat, that’s where. If Romeo Crennel doesn’t win, and soon, he will be the second Parcells disciple run out of town. What that means is look for Jamal Lewis to get all the carries he can handle this season to take pressure off the youngsters.

There are problems with that scenario. Lewis needs to improve his conditioning. In his college days at Tennessee, he was maybe 230 or so. Now listed at 5-11 245, and generously at that, if it weren’t for the orange helmet - Jamal in a brown uni could be mistaken for a UPS truck. Only, he doesn’t deliver the freight like he did in the past. Lewis will be an old 28 in August, after leaving college early. He has had a torn ACL and 4 seasons of 300+ carries. His per carry average has declined from 5.3 in his career year of ‘03 to 3.4 and 3.6 the last 2 years.

With no Jonathan Ogden anchoring the O-line in Cleveland, and surrounded by youth, the operative color may be red. As in: red flags. Lewis did rebound somewhat last season with over 1,000 yards and 9 Touchdowns, but that was with a Hall of Famer at Left Tackle, an experienced, proven winner at Quarterback and Brian Billick as coach. Okay, 2 out of 3 isn’t bad. Just kidding. If you want to know how smart Billick is, just ask him. The Ravens obviously think Jamal is on the way down, and Ozzie Newsome is a savvy a GM as there is in the league.

With all these factors going against him, even if Lewis does have gas left in the tank, how much can he be expected to produce with an offense that doesn’t figure to score many points? If you don’t believe a quality runner can be stymied by a porous line, look at Edgerrin James’ 2006 season.

I have a theory that Cleveland may have signed Jamal just so they didn’t have to face him twice a year. In 2003, Lewis had 500 yards and 4 Touchdowns in 2 games vs. the Browns. Even with his decline since, he has had his best games against his former divisional rival. It all adds up to middle round draft pick in my book. Lewis is still worth taking, but you’d better have some depth at running back.